Can the Volt revolutionize the auto industry?
I’ve followed hybrid cars, intently, for a long time, and 5 years ago I would have predicted much greater hybrid penetration than exists today. Thus, when Toyota launched the second generation Prius, I believed auto analysts, such as Anthony Pratt of JD Power, for instance, were crazy when they claimed hybrid market share would barely reach 3 percent by 2010.
Unfortunately, however, Mr. Pratt was right.
Thus, as study after study – and analyst after analyst – has concluded that, barring something extraordinary, plug-in vehicle marketshare is going to grow slowly over the next few decades, I’ve carefully listened. If correct, these studies and analysts demonstrate that it will be decades before plug-in vehicles have any real impact on reducing either foreign oil dependency or CO2 emissions.
Based on the last 3 decades of US dependence on foreign oil, another 3 decades seems a scary proposition to this hybrid fan.
Therefore, perhaps alternative fuels, such as natural gas, should be considered more seriously in the interim. Likewise, maybe there should be a greater focus on incentives for conventional hybrids, especially ones that can be converted to plug-in hybrids down the road. Or, maybe just a simple tax credit for any car that achieves 50 mpg on the EPA’s city cycle is the key.
Then again, maybe all the studies and analysts are wrong. Maybe a major breakthrough in lithium-ion chemistry isn’t so far-fetched? Or, maybe gas prices are destined to double in the next decade?
Why might the bulk of the data piling up against mass plug-in adoption in the next decade or two be wrong?
see also........
- When did Toyota pull the plug on plug-in hybrids?
- Toyota the plug-in naysayer? During a period of more than 3 years Toyota tested about 150 lithium-powered plug-in Prius hybrids – a fleet still larger than GM’s current Chevy Volt fleet – logging more than 1 million real world miles in almost every type of driving condition imaginable. The lithium batteries used proved safe and reliable, [...]...
- Time to get real about hybrids and plug-ins
- All about the dead Presidents? Several months ago, a JD Power survey found that, despite declining gas prices, more than 70 percent of Americans were interested in buying hybrid cars. More than 40 percent of that 70 percent indicated they would pay as much as $5000.00 more for a hybrid.At the time, however, hybrid sales [...]...
- PX-MiEV Plug-in hybrid concept
- A whole new take on the MiEV The PX-MiEV plug-in hybrid concept Mitsubishi’s first electric vehicles will hit the American market in 2011. Hopefully, that will include the very interesting PX-MiEV plug-in hybrid. The PX is a plug-in series hybrid, or a plug-in parallel hybrid; a two-wheel drive hybrid or a four-wheel drive hybrid. It’s all about your [...]...
- Report: Plug-ins would increase CO2 emissions in England
- It all keeps coming up dirty coalAre plug-in hybrids the key to global warming?Absolutely not if coal is the source of plug-in electricity.However, could coal-powered plug-in hybrids help reduce CO2 emissions as other clean technologies are added as power-generation sources?That largely depends upon where one lives and a number of the factors, including whom you [...]...
- Cadillac XTS: GM’s plug-in hybrids live
- It’s not just about Voltecs?Hang around some of GM’s Chevy Volt team and you’ll be corrected every time you call the Volt a plug-in hybrid. While technically true, GM wants the Volt to be seen as an electric vehicle, a range extended electric vehicle.And there just might be some logic for this distinction. For years [...]...
- BCG Study: What it will take for plug-in cost-effectiveness
- 19 years to recoup Volt costs?Today, the Boston Consulting Group released a study on plug-in vehicles that suggests, as have many studies recently, that plug-in adoption will by stymied by cost-ineffectiveness for some time.To achieve critical mass, BCG cites the $250 kwh threshold that automakers claim will be required to make plug-in vehicles cost-effective. Unfortunately, [...]...
- Suzuki makes Swift move to plug-in hybrids
- Another series hybridSuzuki is bringing the Swift plug-in hybrid to the Tokyo Auto Show.Not a lot of details have been released so far, other than the fact that the Swift plug-in hybrid is a lithium-powered series hybrid. ...
- Gassy: Making sense of Fisker plug-in hype
- The Model T of the plug-in hybrid?There has been a ton of news about Fisker Automotive in the last several days. I guess being connected to the VP of the US is a pretty smart move, especially when the government is doling out $50 billion in fuel efficient loans and other grants, etc. these days [...]...
- Long term consequences: The need for hybridization now?
- Still on the road 20 years from now?America learned many things from the recent Cash for Clunker program, yet one of the biggest takeaways should be the lasting impact of today’s technology upon tomorrow’s environment. In a fleet of hundreds of millions, old gas-guzzlers from decades ago still impact today’s world significantly.Unfortunately, neither upgraded CAFE [...]...
- Mercedes-Benz Vision S500 Plug-In Hybrid Concept Vehicle To Debut At IAA In Frankfurt
- Shortly after the successful market launch of the S 400 HYBRID, currently the most fuel-efficient luxury-segment saloon with a petrol engine, Mercedes-Benz will be presenting the first ?three-litre car? in the premium class – the Vision S 500 Plug-in HYBRID – at the 63rd IAA in Frankfurt. The technology vehicle will display the future of [...]...
